WeatherARC Blog

Tropical Storm Arlene 2011

admin — Wed, 29 Jun 2011 15:43:27 +0000

Very early this morning the Atlantic’s first tropical storm of the season formed, named Arlene. There was a nice area of convection over the Yucatan Peninsula earlier this week that moved westward into the Bay of Campeche. Air force reconnaissance noted yesterday there were tropical depression strength winds at the surface within that convection but organization was somewhat lacking. Overnight the system became better organized and was later categorized as a tropical storm. Not too early of a start to hurricane season but the latest first of the season tropical cyclone since 2004 when their first storm of the season, Alex, developed on July 31.

Here is a nice satellite picture of Arlene as of 10:45am today:

Image courtesy of GOES

416 tornadoes for May 2011

admin — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 15:34:14 +0000

Last month there were over 400 tornadoes reported with about 370 of them being confirmed at this point.¹ That tops the totals for May 2009 and May 2010. It is also higher than the average number of tornadoes in May over the last 10 years, 298.² Though it was a far cry from the 542 tornadoes that were confirmed in May 2003.

Right now, as of June 14, we are almost tied for the fifth most deaths in a year from tornadoes. 1925 had 794 deaths, 1936 had 552 deaths, 1917 had 551 deaths, 1927 had 540 deaths, and 1896 had 537 deaths.² We are at 536 deaths this year from tornadoes. That is over double the total number of tornado deaths in the previous three years combined. Hopefully this month won’t be so bad. Thankfully June is where the tornado activity starts to drop off again.

Here is where there were tornadoes reported last month:

Background image courtesy of picsneed.co.cc, tornado counts courtesy of SPC

¹http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html#latestmts
²http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/2011_tornado_information.html

Fifteen states affected by tornadoes

admin — Thu, 02 Jun 2011 14:25:47 +0000

In the last week fifteen states have reported tornadoes. California seems to keep seeing a few tornadoes every now and again over these past couple months. Tornado alley has definitely not been free of tornadoes this year. Well outside of tornado alley, Massachusetts reported 7 tornadoes yesterday, likely some of them were repeats but there will still be at least 2-3 confirmed tornadoes out of all those reports. On average Massachusetts has 3 tornadoes a year¹, so they either tied or broke that record with one day’s worth of severe weather activity!

Here are the states reporting tornado activity:

ALABAMA:1 reported
CALIFORNIA: 4 reported
COLORADO: 1 reported
KANSAS: 6 reported
LOUISIANA: 3 reported
MASSACHUSETTS: 7 reported
MICHIGAN: 5 reported
MINNESOTA: 3 reported
MISSISSIPPI: 1 reported
NEBRASKA: 16 reported
NORTH DAKOTA: 2 reported
OHIO: 2 reported
PENNSYLVANIA: 12 reported
SOUTH DAKOTA: 7 reported
WASHINGTON: 2 reported

* Numbers courtesy of SPC

¹http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/tornado/small/avgt5304.gif

33 Tornadoes for Missouri

admin — Thu, 26 May 2011 15:02:03 +0000

And again the SPC issued a high risk warning for the likelihood of severe weather yesterday but this time it was for where Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, and Illinois meet. Thankfully Joplin was avoided in this most recent wave but other areas of Missouri weren’t so lucky. Ellsinore, MO in Carter county reported a tornado that was about 1/2 to 3/4 mile wide. Apparently that tornado went through the entire county and moved northeast into Wayne County. Pettis County also saw some pretty extensive damage from the tornadoes reported there. Oddly there were 7 tornadoes reported in California in Glenn and Butte Counties.

The risk for severe weather is much less for today, thankfully, but there is still a chance of some hail and high winds.

Here is a map of the states most recently affected by the tornado outbreak yesterday:

More tornadoes for tornado alley

admin — Wed, 25 May 2011 14:16:50 +0000

Yesterday the SPC issued a high risk warning for the likelihood of severe weather for Kansas down into Oklahoma ending in northern Texas around the Dallas, TX area. There were 47 tornadoes reported yesterday, mainly in that area. There were four main clusters of tornadoes Central Kansas, Oklahoma near Oklahoma City, Texas near and north of Dallas, and Arkansas between Fayetteville and Little Rock. Thankfully there were fewer deaths and injuries from these tornadoes. Though the damage was pretty extensive in some locations.

Here is a map of the states most recently affected by the tornado outbreak over the last two days (Oklahoma City and Dallas are noted with asterisks):

Information in the above image is courtesy of the SPC.

Another high risk has been issued by the SPC for today. Please pay attention to the weather warnings for your area and take cover as needed.

More tornadoes for Missouri

admin — Mon, 23 May 2011 17:53:49 +0000

And the wrath of tornadoes continued this past weekend for the Midwest U.S. Just last night there was a pretty significant tornado outbreak in and around Joplin, MO. There were reports of a mile wide tornado affecting the area bringing damage equivalent to a possible EF-4 or EF-5 tornado. There were 51 tornadoes reported yesterday, 13 of those were in Missouri alone. 51 tornadoes is almost 40 percent of the total amount of tornadoes reported so far this month!

If you look back and my previous blog posts specifically this post (http://weatherarc.com/blog/2011/05/05/800-tornadoes-reported-april-2011/) you will see Missouri already saw 30 tornadoes last month. If you add on this months total that brings the current count of reported tornadoes to 45! On average Missouri has 30 tornadoes a year.¹ So if most of the tornadoes reported do verify this will go down as one of the more active months for Missouri.

Here is a map of the tornado counts so far this month. Joplin, MO is denoted with an asterisk on the map.

¹http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/severeweather/tornadoes.html#maps

Flooding continues along the Mississippi

admin — Thu, 19 May 2011 18:23:46 +0000

Since I last posted something the water levels have dropped in many of the areas that were affected by the flooding. Many of those areas are still experiencing moderate flooding along the rivers and waterways. Only twenty four streamflow gauges are recording major flooding conditions now, a drop from forty May 10. Based on the forecasts it looks like most locations will see a drop in water levels over the next week, definitely a welcome sight. However Devils Lake in North Dakota, Vicksburg in Mississippi, and Natchez in Mississippi will see likely see a slow increase in water levels over the next week.

Here are current water heights at a bunch of streamflow gauges across the U.S.

Location	State	River Height 5/19/11 (feet)	Record Height (feet)	Forecast for the next week
Mississippi River Near Greenville	Arkansas	63.65	65.4	Slow decrease
Mississippi River Near Arkansas City	Arkansas	52.35	59.2	Slow decrease
White River at Clarendon	Arkansas	33.97	43.3	Continued drop in water levels over the next week
White River at Des Arc	Arkansas	28.44	37.3	Continued drop in water levels over the next week
White River Above Augusta	Arkansas	N/A	41	Very slowly decreasing
Mississippi River at Osceola	Arkansas	40.38	50.9	Continued drop in water levels over the next week
Little Wabash River at Carmi	Illinois	29.4	38.4	Continued drop in water levels over the next week
Patoka River at Princeton	Indiana	19.04	24.44	Continued drop in water levels over the next week
Ohio River at Paducah	Kentucky	42.96	60.6	Continued drop in water levels over the next week
Ohio River at Smithland Lock and Dam	Kentucky	41.75	51.4	Slow decrease
Mississippi River at Baton Rouge	Louisiana	44.75	47.3	fairly steady
Mississippi River at Natchez	Mississippi	61.86	58	Slow increase
Mississippi River at Vicksburg	Mississippi	56.95	56.2	Slow increase
Mississippi River at Caruthersville	Missouri	40.79	46	Continued drop in water levels over the next week
Mississippi River at New Madrid	Missouri	40.73	48	Continued drop in water levels over the next week
Ohio River at Cairo	Missouri	51.14	59.5	Continued drop in water levels over the next week
North Platte River	Nebraska	7.1	6.7	Slow increase
Lake Champlain at Rouses Point	New York	102.59	102.1	Modest increase in near future
Lake Champlain Near Whitehall	New York	102.6	103	Slowly decreasing
Sheyanne River at West Fargo Diversion	North Dakota	20.75	28.8	Continued drop in water levels over the next week
Devils Lake	North Dakota	1454.05	1452.1	Slow increase
Souris River Near Foxholm	North Dakota	15.98	17.2	Slow increase
James River Near Yankton	South Dakota	16.33	24.3	Slowly decreasing
James River Near Mitchell	South Dakota	21.45	25.3	Very slowly decreasing
James River at Huron	South Dakota	15.99	21.3	Slowly decreasing
James River Near Ashton	South Dakota	20.54	26	Slowly decreasing
James River Near Columbia	South Dakota	18.04	19.8	Slowly decreasing
Mississippi River at Memphis	Tennessee	42.05	Unknown	Continued drop in water levels over the next week
Mississippi River at Tiptonville	Tennessee	41.43	47.8	Continued drop in water levels over the next week
Lake Champlain at Burlington	Vermont	102.67	101.9	fairly steady

Record Flooding along the Mississippi

admin — Tue, 10 May 2011 14:30:14 +0000

The flooding this season has been extensive. Right now forty streamflow gauges across the U.S. are recording major flooding conditions. In a bunch of these locations water levels of the local rivers have already exceeded the previous records. Thankfully some locations along the Ohio River are already starting to see a drop in water levels. However as you move farther south towards the Mississippi River the water levels are just starting to crest. Even further south of that into Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi water levels are forecast to rise and in some locations possibly rise to record levels.

Here are current water heights at a bunch of streamflow gauges across the U.S.

Location	State	River Height 5/10/11 (feet)	Record Height (feet)	Notes
Mississippi River Near Greenville	Arkansas	62.05	65.4	Forecast to Rise
Mississippi River Near Arkansas City	Arkansas	51.02	59.2	Forecast to Rise
White River at Clarendon	Arkansas	37.54	43.3
White River at Des Arc	Arkansas	36.4	37.3	Previously exceeded record height
White River Above Augusta	Arkansas	36.9	41
Mississippi River at Osceola	Arkansas	47.2	50.9
Little Wabash River at Carmi	Illinois	35.02	38.4
Patoka River at Princeton	Indiana	22.8	24.44	Previously exceeded record height
Ohio River at Paducah	Kentucky	53.6	60.6
Ohio River at Smithland Lock and Dam	Kentucky	53.2	51.4
Mississippi River at Baton Rouge	Louisiana	41.75	47.3	Forecast to Rise
Mississippi River at Natchez	Mississippi	57.32	58	Forecast to Rise to record levels
Mississippi River at Vicksburg	Mississippi	52.79	56.2	Forecast to Rise to record levels
Mississippi River at Caruthersville	Missouri	46.7	46
Mississippi River at New Madrid	Missouri	47	48	Previously exceeded record height
Ohio River at Cairo	Missouri	57.8	59.5
North Platte River	Nebraska	6.52	6.7
Lake Champlain at Rouses Point	New York	102.75	102.1
Lake Champlain Near Whitehall	New York	103.06	103
Sheyanne River at West Fargo Diversion	North Dakota	22.32	28.8
Devils Lake	North Dakota	1454.18	1452.1
Souris River Near Foxholm	North Dakota	15.1	17.2
James River Near Yankton	South Dakota	19	24.3
James River Near Mitchell	South Dakota	22.59	25.3
James River at Huron	South Dakota	17.85	21.3
James River Near Ashton	South Dakota	23.1	26
James River Near Columbia	South Dakota	18.75	19.8
Mississippi River at Memphis	Tennessee	47.75	Unknown
Mississippi River at Tiptonville	Tennessee	47	47.8	Previously exceeded record height
Lake Champlain at Burlington	Vermont	102.86	101.9

Water levels courtesy of USGS and NWS

Take Our Poll

800+ tornadoes reported April 2011

admin — Thu, 05 May 2011 15:05:14 +0000

We had over 850 tornadoes reported last month. Some of the damage and tornado count verification has already been done so the numbers of actual tornadoes that occurred will likely decrease as time progresses. Likely during the severe weather some people reported the same tornado resulting initially in duplicates in the tornado counts.

Even after all the verification is done this past month will likely stand as the most occurring tornadoes in one month for as long as we have had records. May 2003 sets the previous record with 542 tornadoes.¹

See the tornado counts for yourself (note these number are preliminary)¹:

* There was one tornado reported between May1-2 and it was in Colorado.

¹ Tornado counts courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center

200 more tornadoes in the last three days

admin — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 13:28:44 +0000

And the tornadoes just keep on coming. Over 250 more tornadoes were reported since Monday. Michigan, New York, and Maryland even saw a few tornadoes. Many of the reported tornadoes have yet to be confirmed. Sadly there have already been many fatalities reported from last nights tornado outbreak in the Southeast. Thankfully, though, it looks like the severe weather should finally calm down a bit today into the weekend.

Here is a map of the tornado counts from the past few days:

Outline map courtesy of University of Texas at Austin Library